时间：2024-09-22 07:19:09 来源：American news

Kyungnam University President and former Unification Minister Park Jae Kyu / Courtesy of Kyungnam University

If convinced of regime security, Pyongyang needs to take dramatic steps at early stage

By Kim Bo-eun

Amid a positive mood over the upcoming summit between leaders of North Korea and the U.S., a North Korea expert said Pyongyang should exhibit its sincerity over giving up its nuclear program at the historic June 12 meeting in Singapore.

"The U.S. wants a resolute decision coming from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. If North Korea is convinced the U.S. will guarantee security of its regime, it should take some dramatic steps toward denuclearization early on as required by the U.S.," Park Jae Kyu, Kyungnam University president and former unification minister, told The Korea Times.

The former minister said the summit would likely be productive, seeing that the two states boosted mutual understanding and trust in meetings between top North Korean official Kim Yong-chol and U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington, D.C., and New York last week.

Forecasts of denuclearization process

"I anticipate the leaders will reach an agreement on a broad framework for denuclearization and compensation, with aims of the process beginning in 2018 and ending in 2020," Park said.

In a central committee meeting of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea in April, Kim Jong-un stated he will focus on building North Korea's economy.

"Because 2018 is an important year for Kim for economic development, if North Korea takes definitive action for denuclearization, the U.S. may declare an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, make a non-aggression treaty and lift the designation of North Korea as a terrorist-sponsoring state and economic sanctions against the country as measures to be taken this year," the scholar said.

"The expectation is for North Korea to completely denuclearize and the United States to sign a peace treaty, normalize diplomatic relations with the North, and provide it with economic support within Trump's first term in office, which ends in 2020."

The North Korean leader told South Korean envoys who visited Pyongyang in March that the regime would have no reason to possess nuclear weapons if its safety were guaranteed.

This may involve removing North Korea's external security threats and fears about war by signing a peace treaty with South Korea and the U.S., and establishing diplomatic relations with the U.S.

Because North Korea is concerned about whether or not any agreement would be fully implemented to its end, it could require an enduring security assurance backed by U.S. legislation, such as approval from the U.S. Congress, Park said.

Meanwhile, when it comes to the signatories of the peace treaty, the former minister said, "There are no international norms that require the signatories of a peace agreement to be the parties who signed the armistice agreement."

Signatories of the armistice were the military commanders of North Korea, China and the U.S.-led United Nations forces. The Panmunjeom Declaration reached at the inter-Korean summit on April 27 states the Koreas seek to hold three-way meetings with the U.S. or four-party talks including China to formally end the Korean War within this year, switch the armistice into a peace treaty and achieve lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula.

"I think a desirable solution would be the two Koreas as signatories, the U.S. and China as guarantors, Japan and Russia as supporters and everything formally ratified by the U.N.," Park said.

"The Moon Jae-in administration is closely communicating with neighboring countries on the matter and this shows the voices of Korea's neighbors will not be neglected."

NK willingness for denuclearization

Critics contest the significance of North Korea's shutdown of its Punggye-ri nuclear testing site conducted last month, referring to the regime's demolition of a cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear facility in 2008 and its subsequent return to developing its nuclear program.

Park focused on the fact that the Punggye-ri site was to further develop nuclear capabilities, as stressed earlier by the North Korean leader.

"Disarming and dismantling this facility provides symbolic meaning and confidence that North Korea will carry out complete denuclearization," he said.

The Punggye-ri site is where North Korea conducted its six past nuclear tests, the most recent of which took place last September.

Less than a year ago, tension escalated on the Korean Peninsula to the point where the U.S. threatened to conduct a military strike on the North. Throughout 2017, North Korea conducted multiple nuclear and missile tests.

Circumstances took a sharp turn this year, when Kim Jong-un stated in his New Year address his willingness to send a delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics hosted in the South. Inter-Korean relations began to thaw as Pyongyang ended up taking part in the Games after Seoul and Washington pushed back their annual joint military drills until after the sporting event.

The North Korean leader invited President Moon for talks, and Moon sent special envoys to Pyongyang to meet Kim Jong-un. In the meeting, Kim made a dramatic announcement that the regime was willing to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees. The Kim-Trump summit was arranged after the envoys flew to Washington to deliver Kim's invitation to talks.

While skeptics continue to question North Korea's intentions, Park sees the North's move as a means of survival.

"Especially after the launch of the Trump administration, economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure and military deterrence were strengthened and the issue of regime survival began to surface as an imminent issue," he said.

"In addition, due to provocations and his reign of terror, the international community has stigmatized Kim Jong-un as an abnormal leader of an abnormal nation. It appears Kim is trying to overcome the economic difficulties and become a normal leader of a normal state with his regime security guaranteed by the U.S."

Park positively evaluated the outcome of the high-level inter-Korean talks held last week.

The North and South set dates for general-level military talks, meetings to discuss sports cooperation, and Red Cross talks for humanitarian issues including resuming reunions of families separated by the Korean War.

"A virtuous cycle of the North's talks with the South and the U.S. will contribute to achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula," he said.

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